Outlook warns of delayed but high-risk bushfire season
The Guardian Australia has reported that New South Wales is facing a delayed start to the bushfire season after one of the wettest winters on record.
The Rural Fire Service (RFS) annual outlook said heavy rain over the past financial year had caused extensive regrowth and created the conditions for fast-spreading grass fires.
NSW emergency services minister Jihad Dib told parliament that severe weather events, including flooding and cyclones in 2024–25, hindered hazard reduction works.
He said wetter conditions this spring would likely continue to limit efforts.
Dib explained that rain had accelerated growth, which would become fuel once dry and hot conditions returned.
RFS commissioner Trent Curtin said communities faced the risk of fast-running grass fires that could threaten lives and properties, even in areas previously burnt during the 2019–20 black summer.
Hazard reduction efforts limited by weather
According to Dib, fire agencies managed to complete 100,000 hectares of hazard reduction in 2024–25, about 27% of the 377,290-hectare target.
The minister said completed works could protect an estimated 166,000 properties, or 80% of the target properties.
He told parliament the goal for 2025–26 was 372,700 hectares of hazard reduction, with the aim of protecting 232,600 properties.
Hazard reduction traditionally takes place in autumn, but Dib said the RFS now looked for “windows” of safe conditions rather than fixed seasonal periods.
He added that hazard reduction requires a balance of dryness and heat, which had been difficult to achieve after heavy rains.
Volunteer numbers and community preparation
Guardian Australia reported that volunteer numbers in the RFS had dropped below 70,000 in 2024–25.
RFS group captain Phil Banks said the decline was linked to economic conditions, as many people could not afford to give up work days when hazard reduction conditions were suitable.
Banks said he was cautiously optimistic because conditions had not been preceded by drought, unlike the black summer.
He noted that while water in creeks and dams would aid firefighting, it could also restrict access in some areas.
The RFS urged households to prepare for the season, warning that embers could travel up to 30km ahead of fire fronts.
Community concerns over preparedness
RFS data showed that 70% of residents in fire-prone areas had an emergency plan.
Fewer than half of households carried out maintenance such as clearing gutters and ensuring hoses were in working order.
Nelligen brigade captain Nigel Sargent said anxiety was growing in communities as more time passed since previous bushfires, reducing the protective effect of burn scars.
He said uncertainty remained about how severe this bushfire season would be and how communities might respond.
Climate risk and scientific perspectives
The national climate risk assessment recently warned that no Australian community would avoid climate impacts if global heating continued.
Professor David Bowman of the University of Tasmania said New South Wales was already experiencing climate “whiplash” between flood and drought.
He warned that if rainfall stopped abruptly, the state could see both grass fires and intense forest fires.
Bowman said grass fires were especially dangerous due to their speed and the difficulty of containing them.
He noted that forest areas such as the Blue Mountains had regrown rapidly after the 2019–20 bushfires, adding fuel for potential future fires.
Calls for alternative hazard reduction methods
Guardian Australia reported that Bilpin resident Martin Tebbutt said growth in his area was similar to conditions in 2019 before the black summer.
Tebbutt has written to the minister about what he said was a lack of hazard reduction in Bilpin.
He called for more investment in mechanical methods such as slashing undergrowth and clearing vegetation.
He said aerial firefighting was important but would not reduce the fuel available to fires.
Relevance for fire and safety professionals
The delayed bushfire season highlights the ongoing impact of climate conditions on hazard reduction planning.
Fire and rescue professionals must account for both fast-moving grass fires and the accumulation of fuel in forests.
Community preparedness, volunteer numbers, and resource allocation remain central to managing risks effectively.
The shift towards identifying “windows” rather than fixed seasons for hazard reduction reflects the need for adaptive approaches in fire safety operations.
Bushfire season outlook delayed after wet winter in New South Wales: Summary
New South Wales faces a delayed bushfire season after one of the wettest winters on record.
The Rural Fire Service annual outlook said rain caused regrowth and created grass fire risks.
Emergency services minister Jihad Dib said severe weather reduced hazard reduction work in 2024–25.
About 100,000 hectares were completed, 27% of the target.
The work is expected to protect 166,000 properties.
The 2025–26 target is 372,700 hectares to protect 232,600 properties.
Volunteer numbers dropped below 70,000 in 2024–25.
The RFS urged households to prepare properties against ember attacks.
70% of households had a plan, but fewer than half maintained properties.
Professor David Bowman warned of climate “whiplash” between flood and drought.
He said grass fires could overrun firefighting capacity.
Forest areas like the Blue Mountains had regrown quickly.
Bilpin resident Martin Tebbutt called for more mechanical hazard reduction.
The state budget allocated $34.4m for new firefighting aircraft.
Climate risk assessments said all Australian communities faced future climate impacts.