Why 2025 wildfire emissions are reshaping air quality risk worldwide
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has reported that global wildfire emissions from January to November 2025 reached around 1,380 megatonnes of carbon, with record European Union emissions and Canada recording its second highest annual total in the CAMS dataset.
CAMS compared the 2025 figure with estimated emissions of 1,850 megatonnes of carbon from January to November 2024 and 1,940 megatonnes over the full year 2024.
According to CAMS, Canada contributed an estimated 263 megatonnes of carbon to the 2025 total, with only 2023 recording a higher annual figure in the 23 year dataset that began in 2003.
CAMS noted that biomass burning in tropical Africa remains the largest contributor to global biomass burning emissions, and that this region has driven an overall decline over the past two decades because of fewer savanna fires.
In contrast, CAMS data show rising emissions in recent years in other regions, including North America between 2023 and 2025 and the record fire season in South America in 2024.
The service found that more extreme fire emissions have been increasing at different continental scales, even though year to year variability remains high.
CAMS uses its Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) to group estimated total carbon emissions from biomass burning by continent and to produce a 23 year time series up to 2025.
Mark Parrington, CAMS Senior Scientist, said: “What we have seen in 2025 is extreme wildfires in North America and Europe and impacts on atmospheric composition far from where the fires are burning.
“Our global fire emissions monitoring shows extreme wildfire intensity and emissions occurring when dry conditions and high temperatures converge around the world.
“The global perspective of CAMS highlights the local and larger scales that smoke emitted from these wildfires can have in significantly degrading air quality and potentially affecting human health.”
Wildfire emissions and air quality in Europe
CAMS reported that summer fire activity in 2025 produced the highest annual total wildfire emissions on record for the European Union at just under 13 megatonnes of carbon.
While CAMS stated that fires in Europe do not make a large contribution to global carbon dioxide emissions, the service uses carbon as a proxy for other pollutants such as PM2.5 and nitrogen oxides that affect regional air quality.
Large wildfires developed in Spain and Portugal in late July and intensified through August, driven by persistent heatwaves, very dry conditions and strong winds.
In northern Portugal, extensive fires that began in late July continued into early August, leading to a state of emergency and the deployment of more than 3,600 firefighters.
CAMS reported that in Spain the situation deteriorated rapidly in mid August, with fires intensifying across Castilla y León, Galicia, Asturias and Extremadura.
The fires in Spain killed at least three people, forced thousands of residents to evacuate and burned an estimated 120,000 hectares in August alone.
GFAS monitoring showed that emissions in the Iberian Peninsula were close to seasonal norms at first, then rose sharply in the cumulative carbon emissions record during the second week of August.
By 17 August, CAMS data showed a marked increase in fire intensity and smoke emissions across the region, and Spain reached its highest annual total fire emissions in 23 years.
Surface PM2.5 concentrations across much of the Iberian Peninsula exceeded World Health Organization 24 hour guideline levels, while smoke travelled hundreds of kilometres and affected areas including France, the UK and northwestern Europe.
CAMS noted that France saw several large summer outbreaks, including a fire in the Aude Département that started on 4 August between Carcassonne and Perpignan, with satellite observations showing smoke moving over the Mediterranean.
Eastern Mediterranean and UK wildfire emissions
Across the eastern Mediterranean, CAMS reported very severe wildfire activity during summer 2025, with Greece and Turkey facing major outbreaks from late June into July.
Thousands of residents in both countries were evacuated, and CAMS reported that at least 10 forest workers died in Turkey.
Cyprus experienced its worst July wildfires in more than 50 years, which caused two fatalities and generated the island’s highest annual emissions total after only two days of burning.
CAMS reported that extreme conditions continued into August, with wildfire emissions in Turkey remaining well above the long term average.
Syria also recorded its highest August wildfire carbon emissions in the CAMS dataset, and CAMS stated that this was by a wide margin.
Wildfire activity extended across the wider Balkan region, with Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia all experiencing extreme fires during summer 2025.
In the UK, CAMS reported that Northern Scotland experienced large wildfires in late June and early July, producing the highest total estimated wildfire emissions for the UK in the 23 year GFAS record.
Canada and North American wildfire emissions
CAMS reported that Canada experienced its third intense wildfire year in succession, with the 2025 season starting early and strengthening rapidly.
Total wildfire carbon emissions in Canada reached around 250 megatonnes of carbon by 1 October and 263 megatonnes by the end of November, with only 2023 recording a higher total in the CAMS dataset.
CAMS noted that severe wildfire activity developed across Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario in April and May, marking only the second year in the record with such an intense early season after 2023.
GFAS data showed that Fire Radiative Power (FRP) values in these provinces remained well above the 23 year average during June and July.
By mid summer, estimated cumulative carbon emissions had reached record levels of just over 66 megatonnes in Saskatchewan and around 44 megatonnes in Manitoba.
CAMS reported that smoke plumes from Canadian fires repeatedly covered large parts of Canada and North America, with several events sending smoke across the Atlantic to western, central and eastern Europe.
In Alaska, CAMS noted that wildfire activity mainly occurred in June and July, with some days of increased emissions during both months and more than one million acres burned.
Fires persisted across Canada and the wider boreal region in August and through September, with the largest fires recorded in British Columbia, the Northwest Territories and the Yukon.
In the Pacific Northwest, CAMS reported that Washington state recorded its highest September wildfire carbon emissions in the dataset at over 1.5 megatonnes, and emissions in neighbouring British Columbia were second only to the record year of 2023 at just under 5 megatonnes.
CAMS stated that smoke impacts on PM2.5 concentrations from many of these fires were often local, but high aerosol optical depth values showed that smoke transport extended across substantial parts of North America.
Severe air quality impacts from Los Angeles wildfires
CAMS reported that a major wildfire outbreak affected the Los Angeles region in early January 2025, driven by very dry vegetation and strong Santa Ana winds.
According to the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, the event followed a “hydro climate whiplash” pattern, where a wetter than usual 2023 to 2024 spring and summer was followed by a very dry autumn and early winter that left large volumes of flammable vegetation.
The first ignitions were recorded around 7 January, and GFAS daily FRP values for California increased sharply on 7 and 8 January compared with the 2003 to 2024 mean.
CAMS reported that the fires spread rapidly through the wildland urban interface around Los Angeles and into densely built areas.
The event destroyed thousands of buildings, forced around 200,000 residents to evacuate and caused economic losses projected at about US$150 billion, placing it among the costliest US wildfire events in history.
CAMS stated that surface PM2.5 concentrations in and around Los Angeles rose far above safe levels during the fires.
Although winds carried much of the smoke out over the Pacific, local air quality monitoring showed hazardous levels of exposure during the peak of the event.
South American wildfire emissions fall in 2025
CAMS reported that South America recorded one of its lowest wildfire emission years in the GFAS dataset in 2025.
In Argentina, wildfires started in late January and continued into early February, with estimated wildfire carbon emissions for the month of around 1.8 megatonnes.
Chile recorded increased wildfire activity towards the end of March, and CAMS estimated total carbon emissions for the month at around 0.5 megatonnes.
Later in the year, in August and September, CAMS reported that both the number of fires and total emissions in Bolivia and Brazil were far lower than during the record fire year of 2024 and lower than many other years in the dataset.
CAMS stated that as a result of this low fire activity, aerosol optical depth and surface PM2.5 concentrations in both its forecasts and independent observations were at low to moderate levels.
By the end of November, CAMS estimated that Brazil’s year to date wildfire carbon emissions were at their lowest level in the GFAS record at around 80 megatonnes.
In the same period, Bolivia recorded wildfire emissions of around 12 megatonnes.
Russia, Australia and Asia wildfire activity
CAMS reported that large wildfires burned across Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District from early April 2025.
Major outbreaks occurred in the Republic of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai east of Lake Baikal, with additional fires later in the Sakha Republic including within the Arctic Circle, although these were not large in scale.
GFAS data showed that FRP values across the Far Eastern Federal District were close to average until mid May, when they increased quickly.
In Buryatia, FRP values were above average in early April, eased, then rose again in mid May, while in Zabaykalsky Krai FRP was average to well above average from April to mid May.
CAMS reported that emissions for the Far Eastern Federal District reached their highest level for this part of the year since 2018 at just under 40 megatonnes.
Buryatia recorded its highest emissions since 2016 at around 6 megatonnes, and Zabaykalsky Krai recorded almost 25 megatonnes, its highest level since 2015.
Fire activity continued east of Lake Baikal into mid May, with GFAS data showing further fires developing in Amur Oblast and smoke plumes transported towards northeast China and northern Japan.
In Australia, CAMS reported above average seasonal bushfire intensity and emissions in October and early November 2025, especially in northern tropical regions.
The ten largest fires occurred in the Northern Territory, which experienced its hottest October on record and an estimated 8 million hectares burned.
CAMS aerosol optical depth analyses and forecasts also showed smoke spreading across central Australia during this period.
Earlier in the year, CAMS reported that Queensland recorded its highest January wildfire emissions since 2014 and the Northern Territory its highest January emissions since 2013.
Overall, CAMS estimated total wildfire carbon emissions for Australia of around 120 megatonnes up to the end of November, a figure very close to the 2003 to 2024 average.
In Southeast Asia, CAMS reported that seasonal wildfire activity across the upper Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region between January and April was generally below average.
Despite this, the fires contributed to haze events and heavily degraded air quality in parts of the region.
Quality assured wildfire emissions data from CAMS
CAMS explained that its GFAS provides a 23 year dataset of biomass burning location and estimated emissions, including wildfires and open burning, updated in near real time using satellite observations of FRP.
The service noted that emissions estimates carry uncertainties linked to assumptions about fuel type, shape and distribution and about how much fuel is burned and released as emissions.
CAMS uses the estimated emissions in its global and regional air quality forecasts and analyses to track wildfire smoke transport, composition and potential air quality impacts.
The organisation stated that GFAS is developed by a consortium led by the Norwegian Climate and Environmental Research Institute NILU.
CAMS reported that ongoing developments aim to extend GFAS to include FRP observations from additional satellite sensors, in order to maintain continuity in estimated wildfire emissions for its forecast systems.
CAMS provides further information on its global fire monitoring methods and products on its dedicated wildfire and smoke monitoring pages.
Wildfire emissions data for operational planning
CAMS regional breakdowns of wildfire emissions in 2025 provide a global view of where biomass burning is contributing most to carbon release and smoke transport.
The record European Union emissions, extreme fire years in Canada and elevated activity in parts of Russia and Australia show that long range smoke transport can affect regions far from the fire source.
Fire and rescue chiefs, senior officers and emergency and disaster response managers can use CAMS information on PM2.5 and aerosol optical depth to understand when wildfire smoke may degrade local air quality, even when fires are burning in other countries.
Government departments, risk assessors and fire engineering consultants can reference GFAS datasets and CAMS forecasts when assessing exposure patterns from prolonged wildfire seasons and planning responses to repeat smoke events.
Facility managers at airports, mass transit hubs and industrial sites in regions such as the Iberian Peninsula, the Pacific Northwest and the eastern Mediterranean can look at emissions time series and smoke transport analyses to understand when on site operations may face reduced visibility or poor air quality during future fire seasons.
Training officers and instructors can incorporate CAMS findings on early season activity in Canada, the Los Angeles January fires and South American year to year variability into exercises that focus on changing wildfire risk profiles and cross border smoke impacts.